• Markets React to Swine Flu
• US Crop Progress
• Canadian Planting intentions
• Other News

Markets React to Swine Flu

The threat of a swine flu pandemic has had an immediate impact upon commodity markets, as market participants fear a reduction in demand for pork and a subsequent reduction in demand for feed. Further information is needed for markets to respond, with some analysts stating that the current fall in prices could be a knee-jerk reaction, and that markets may stabilise in the near future as realisation that swine flu cannot be spread by pork that has been correctly handled and cooked.

On reaction to the news of the swine flu outbreak, nearby LIFFE feed wheat futures closed at £109.25/t on Monday, down £1.25.t from Friday's close and reducing the £5/t gains made over the previous week. Other markets followed suit with nearby MATIF rapeseed futures falling by EUR4/t, to fall below the EUR300/t mark, and close at EUR296.50/t.

US Crop & Planting Progress
In some states in the US, soyabean planting has begun, with 3% planted as at 26th April. Winter wheat condition at 26th April is reported as 27% of the winter crop being in a poor or very poor condition with a further 45% seen in a good or excellent condition. Maize planting in the US remains varied, as at 26th April, 22% of the maize crop was planted in the 18 main maize growing states. Iowa, Minnesota and Montana have seen vast improvements in planting progress with 47%, 40% and 27% planted, respectively. However, Illinois and Ohio have only planted 4% each in comparison to the 5-year average for this point in the year of 43% for Illinois, and 26% for Ohio.  

Canadian Planting Intentions

Statistics Canada report that farmers anticipate to plant more soyabeans and spring wheat in 2009, whilst the area of oilseed rape planted is expected to decline. Spring wheat planted area is expected to reach 7Mha, up5.9% from the 2008 figure of 6.6Mha. The winter wheat area has fallen by 19.6% from 2008, with 851k Ha of winter wheat planted (1.059Mha in 2008).

Canadian farmers intend to plant 7.8% less oilseed rape than in the previous year. Uncertain input costs are cited by analysts as the main reason for the drop in oilseed rape plantings. The area in 2008 totaled 6.539Mha; in 2009 it is projected that this area will reduce by 473k Ha and total 6.06Mha. However, due to recent cool and wet weather, farmers may switch from planting grain to sow oilseed rape. The intentions of Canadian farmers planting oilseed rape, still remain unclear, Canada is the largest exporter of oilseed rape, therefore any changes in production and exports is likely to have an effect upon global prices. 

Other News 

Southeast Australian Rains Aid Winter Crop Sowing

Recent widespread, and in some cases heavy, rainfall in Southeast Australia will aid the soil conditions prior to winter crop planting. Recent drought conditions in the Murray-Darling basin had been cause for concern. Analysts suggest that the 2009/10 Australian wheat crop could be in the range of 21.2 - 23.1Mt.